What Would China Lose?

Disclaimer: Tamerlane does not support or oppose any external or internal independence/secessionist movement. This post is merely an "academic" exercise.

Many moons ago, Bush 41 discussed the possible separation of Tibet, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia from the People's Republic of China. Together, the three "autonomous" regions make up more than 2/5 of the entire Chinese landmass. But with much of the land un-liveable and un-arable, why does China control it with such an iron grip? And besides the loss of land, what else would China lose if independence movements got their way?

I. Tibet Autonomous Region (Tibet)


Mountainous and high-plateaued Tibet offers China a great natural barrier against India, with which it is still disputing some altitude sickness-inducing lands. The desolation of the region also makes it an ideal place to test nuclear weapons.

But most importantly, China has plenty of face to lose if it lost Tibet. First, it would lose face to the outside world. With pressure, especially from the West, to grant Tibet independence, China is not willing to have Europeans and Americans, who repeatedly humiliated it and its people during the 19th and early 20th centuries, influence or dictate its internal affairs and policies. In addition, China cannot lose face to the dozens of ethnic minorities that live inside China. Capitulating to the Tibetans in such a dramatic fashion would be a sign of weakness for the Han-dominated government and Communist Party. Tibet will always be under Chinese control.

II. Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (South Mongolia)

With ethnic Han Chinese as the overwhelming super majority in this region, independence here is even more unlikely than in Tibet. But it's not just land for Han settlement that makes Inner Mongolia so important. With an insatiable hunger for cheap energy, much of China's coal is derived from Inner Mongolia. And with Beijing just a short car ride to the border of Inner Mongolia, China does not want foreign, possibly unfriendly, troops stationed so near the power center.

III. Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (East Turkestan)

Though Xinjiang is firmly in China's control, China is more concerned about losing Xinjiang than any other territory, both because it is so important strategically and because it has the most active and capable independence movement. (Nevertheless, Tamerlane bets that there is only a 1 to 3% chance of Xinjiang winning independence within the next 50 years.)

With Xinjiang, it is all about location, location, location. It borders eight countries, including Russia and four -stans. Moreover, Xinjiang is the answer to China's energy needs. It has much of the country's proven oil and natual gas reserves. Moreover, it is the logical entry and transit point for pipelines from Kazakhstan and the rest of Central Asia. Finally, like Tibet, it has vast tracts of inhospitable land, which is perfect for nuclear testing.

Lop Nor, anyone?

CKY