Why Nick Heidfeld Has Not Yet Won A Race

In Heidfeld's nine year career in F1, he has not yet won a race. That he's talented is not in question. He holds the record for having the most number of career points without winning a GP (210). He is tied for the record for having the most podium finishes without winning a GP (12). He also holds the record for consistency, having the most consecutive finishes out of all F1 drivers ever (32 and counting). So why can't he win a race?

My theory is related to that last record, his consistency. He is a steady driver in a reliable car. He has not crashed out in 57 races (2006 US GP). My theory is that Nick is not aggressive enough. Without the fire inside him, he doesn't have what it takes to win a race. The lack of fire is evidenced by his extraordinary ability to avoid crashing into others (and walls). When you have that fire, you get in risky situations, go aggro, make contact with others, and crash once in a while.

To lend credence to my hare-brained idea, I'm going to look at winners. Nick began his 32 consecutive finishes record at the 2007 China GP. From that race to the present, ten drivers have won races. I'll look at each one of these drivers and see if, during that same span, they DNF'd due to crashes. If they had many DNF's due to crashes, it would support my theory that winners crash more often in their zeal to get to the top of the podium. (I understand the flawed logic of this as sometimes the driver crashes through no fault of his own, but indulge me.)

• Robert Kubica (1 win): 1 crash (2008 Australia)
• Heikki Kovalainen (1 win): 5 crashes (2007 Brazil, 2008 Spain, 2009 Australia, 2009 Monaco, 2009 Great Britain)
• Mark Webber (1 win): 2 crashes (2008 Australia, 2009 Italy)
• Fernando Alonso (2 wins): 1 crash (2008 Europe)
• Rubens Barrichello (2 wins): 2 crashes (2008 Spain, 2008 Germany)
• Sebastian Vettel (3 wins): 4 crashes (2008 Australia, 2008 Spain, 2008 Great Britain, 2009 Monaco)
• Kimi Raikkonen (5 wins): 1 crash (2008 Canada)
• Lewis Hamilton (5 wins): 3 crashes (2008 Canada, 2009 Belgium, 2009 Italy)
• Felipe Massa (6 wins): 0 crashes
• Jenson Button (6 wins): 4 crashes (2008 Australia, 2008 Bahrain, 2008 France, 2009 Belgium)

I think these results are inconclusive at best. At worst, my theory may not have a leg to stand on. It does appear that winners have more crashes, but that big goose egg for Massa may have destroyed my theory. Plus, Heikki, with five crashes, is not known to be particularly aggressive or that great of a driver (compared to the other nine winners). He may have just been unlucky to crash so often. Finally, three out of four of Button's crashes were in the horrendous Honda, and he was not battling anyone in 2008, except perhaps his teammate for 18th spot.

Updated here.

Nick Heidfeld's last crash (2006 US GP)